Water FractalTier 1
at Storechamp
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Genbu | 25.0% | 9 | 5-3-1 | 61.1% | 57.7% | 61.9% | +5.5 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 9.4% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 64.9% | +9.6 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 9.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.5% | -7.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Byakko | 6.2% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 48.6% | -1.4 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.2% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 48.6% | -1.4 |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 3.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.4% | +5.2 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.1% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 44.9% | -3.8 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.9% | +17.4 |
| Water Allies | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 3.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 66.6% | +15.9 |
| Wind Diana | 3.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 34.8% | -14.5 |
| Wind Exia | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.4% | -23.3 |
| Wind Kongming | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.9% | +11.1 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.4% | +21.5 |
Decklists · 6 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 25 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 25 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Crimson Protective Trinket | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Chill to the Bone | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Jianyu, Fate's Premonition | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unstable Fractal | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Lost in Thought | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Diao Chan, Dreaming Wish | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Extricating Touch | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Captivating Opulence | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Deep Sea Fractal | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Art of War | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 |